EPICENTER

EPICENTER’s latest 28-country analysis confirms that every additional €1 in taxation pushes the illicit cigarette market up by 5–12 percentage points. In nations like France, Ireland, Greece and the UK, sharp excise increases have triggered dramatic rises in smuggling, slashed legal sales and left smoking rates largely unchanged—delivering windfall profits to criminals while endangering the livelihoods of small, self-employed retailers.

A new European study featured in Autónomos y Emprendedor reveals how steep tobacco taxes are driving a boom in cigarette smuggling across 28 countries, eroding public revenues and endangering self-employed tobacconists' livelihoods. EPICENTER analysis shows a statistically significant correlation: every €1 tax-driven price hike boosts the black-market share by 5–12 percentage points. Nations like France, the UK, Greece and Ireland have experienced sharp illicit trade rises after major tax increases, with legal sales plummeting while smoking rates hold steady—shifting consumers to contraband and empowering criminal networks.

A new Financial Times analysis highlights Epicenter’s latest research showing that the total word count of EU legislation has surged over 700% since the Maastricht Treaty. This unchecked regulatory accumulation is presented as a core reason for Europe’s declining competitiveness, driving up compliance costs, slowing decision-making, protecting incumbents and diverting resources from innovation to bureaucracy. The piece underlines how political incentives make meaningful deregulation politically near-impossible.

EPICENTER’s 2025 Nanny State Index, featured in MSN Norway, ranks European countries on tobacco, junk food, and alcohol regulations, each weighted at 33.3% for a score out of 100. It highlights varied approaches, with stricter laws sparking debate over personal freedom versus health benefits.