EPICENTER

Christopher Snowdon’s new EPICENTER study shows that every €1 increase in cigarette prices drives a 5–12 percentage point rise in illicit consumption across Europe. While Romania has successfully halved its black-market share from 12% to 6% through moderate taxation, the article cautions that the government’s planned 10% excise rise risks reversing these gains. In high-tax countries like the UK, France and Ireland, legal sales have collapsed without meaningful drops in smoking prevalence, boosting organised crime and eroding revenues instead.

EPICENTER, featured in Prawo.Gazetaprawna, critiques the February 2025 excise tax hike on vaping devices (PLN 40/unit), nicotine pouches (PLN 150/kg, rising to PLN 250 by 2027), and e-cigarette liquids (PLN 40 penalty + PLN 0.96/ml), arguing it lacks a health campaign to justify the increase. Our research warns of a growing black market, citing KPMG’s report of a 4.3% shadow economy in 2024, and notes potential triple taxation risks, with industry experts estimating up to PLN 30 billion budget losses over a decade from proposed bans on disposables and flavored pouches.

EPICENTER, featured in a European Conservative article, critiques the EU’s plan to raise its budget to €2 trillion, including higher tobacco taxes and a new carbon tax, citing a study showing a €1 excise hike boosts the illegal cigarette market by 5-12%. The think tank opposes taxing alternatives like vaping, noting Sweden’s success with lower smoking rates.

The EU Regulatory Observatory’s latest assessment gives the European Commission’s SME Relief Package a lukewarm 6.57/10 for liberalisation. Despite promises of a 25% cut in reporting burdens via sandboxes and voluntary measures, Brussels Report highlights new bureaucratic layers and a failure to tackle the 729% regulatory explosion since Maastricht. The analysis warns that cosmetic tweaks and selective exemptions fall far short of the bold deregulation Europe needs to close the competitiveness gap with the US and China.

KEFIM, featured in Proto Thema, cites an EPICENTER study showing Greece’s tobacco black market at 25%, fourth highest in Europe, driven by tax hikes boosting illegal trade by 5-12% per euro. Factors include weak enforcement and proximity to low-price countries, not just affordability.

KEFIM, featured in Iefimerida, highlights an EPICENTER study showing Greece’s tobacco black market at 25%, fourth highest in Europe. The report links this to tax hikes boosting illegal trade by 5-12% per euro, citing weak enforcement and border issues beyond just price.

EPICENTER, featured in Economie Matin, criticizes the EU’s plan to raise tobacco taxes and introduce TEDOR (€11.2 billion/year), arguing it boosts the illegal market by 5-12% per €1 excise hike. The think tank opposes taxing safer alternatives like vaping, citing Sweden’s lower smoking rates, while slamming the €2 trillion budget expansion.

Gabriel Hawryluk of FOR, featured in XYZ, reports Poland ranks 8th in EPICENTER’s 2025 Nanny State Index, second in food regulation due to energy drink bans and sugar taxes, and tightening nicotine controls with a 90% e-liquid tax hike by 2027. The index finds no health benefit correlation, advocating economic growth over restrictions.