Clemens Schneider // 12 March 2025

‘Sabre rattling’ (as German president Frank-Walter Steinmeier lamented in 2016 regarding warnings against Russia’s expansion) can be heard from all sides: The Green Party's candidate for Chancellor, Robert Habeck states the goal of spending 3.5 per cent of GDP on defence. Donald Trump is demanding 5 per cent from NATO members. In everyday life, this would mean that if both the postman and your father-in-law tell you that you should do something about your weight, this could be an alarm signal.

Russia has kept its military spending in this range for years. Under Xi, nationalist and imperialist propaganda has become engrained in the minds and hearts of China's young people in particular. Iran has been on the defensive massively in the last few years, but that is precisely what can trigger violence. In Western-minded countries (with the exception of the USA), however, the issue of the military has been put to one side since the end of the Cold War. Here in Germany to such an extent that we could probably be occupied by Switzerland or the Czech Republic in a matter of days.

In 1960, for example, or in 1975, military expenditure as a proportion of GDP in this country was also at Habeck's 3.5 per cent. The country could afford that. And it wanted to afford it. Donald Trump is absolutely right when he says that NATO countries can afford to spend significantly more, even if the five per cent figure may be a little exaggerated. A wealthy country like Germany can certainly afford to invest significantly more. And we may also have a responsibility towards poorer NATO partners.

The problem is that we don't want to afford it. That we set other priorities. The federal subsidy for statutory pension insurance, for example, has risen by 455 per cent since the end of the Cold War. Federal expenditure on pensions, survivors' pensions and benefits has risen by 335 per cent. It is true that the pension gap with the newly added federal states in the east of Germany also had to be closed during this period. At the same time, however, more and more years passed since the last major destruction of assets during the Second World War. This meant that significant sections of the population were able to achieve financial security by investing and, not least, inheriting. And something else: by deciding to have fewer or no children, more and more people have been able to free up resources that they may not have invested exclusively in consumption, but rather in wealth accumulation. The pension ‘watering can’ could actually only have been justified in the ‘new’ federal states. The German government's ‘Old Age Security Report’ also speaks a clear language. It states: ‘The average net household income of older couples is 3,759 euros per month. For single men, it is 2,213 euros, while single women have a lower average income of 1,858 euros.’ And ‘Overall, only 3.9 per cent of the population above the standard retirement age claim basic security benefits.’

If respect, security and all the other flowery words that the parties are now using in the election campaign really applied under the current geopolitical conditions, it would have to mean, for example: no more pension increases for all but the poorest quarter until Germany is once again in a position to defend itself and its partners. Because once Poland has become a Russian satellite state and Japan's economic policy is dictated by Beijing, it will no longer be so easy to finance the next maternity pension.

This blog was originally published in German by Prometheus.

Clemens Schneider is one of the two founders of Prometheus and serves as its director in Berlin. When it comes to content, he's the go-to person for many: for final proofreading of various types of texts, for strategic considerations of topics and projects, and as a speaker at lectures, debates, and occasionally on radio and television. Since Clemens also seeks to interact with passionate people, he's a good fit for networking, although he usually enjoys contact with curious and enthusiastic young people much more than with the supposedly important and powerful. He also publishes regularly in the FAZ, Welt, taz, and other media outlets.