New EPICENTER research covering 28 countries shows a clear statistical link: every €1 tax-driven price increase expands the black-market share by 5–12 percentage points. Countries such as France, the UK, Greece and Ireland have seen illicit trade soar after major tax hikes, while legal sales collapse and smoking prevalence barely budges. The result is lost revenue, stronger criminal networks and thousands of self-employed tobacconists across Europe at risk.

EPICENTER’s latest 28-country analysis confirms that every additional €1 in taxation pushes the illicit cigarette market up by 5–12 percentage points. In nations like France, Ireland, Greece and the UK, sharp excise increases have triggered dramatic rises in smuggling, slashed legal sales and left smoking rates largely unchanged—delivering windfall profits to criminals while endangering the livelihoods of small, self-employed retailers.

A new European study featured in Autónomos y Emprendedor reveals how steep tobacco taxes are driving a boom in cigarette smuggling across 28 countries, eroding public revenues and endangering self-employed tobacconists' livelihoods. EPICENTER analysis shows a statistically significant correlation: every €1 tax-driven price hike boosts the black-market share by 5–12 percentage points. Nations like France, the UK, Greece and Ireland have experienced sharp illicit trade rises after major tax increases, with legal sales plummeting while smoking rates hold steady—shifting consumers to contraband and empowering criminal networks.

A new Financial Times analysis highlights Epicenter’s latest research showing that the total word count of EU legislation has surged over 700% since the Maastricht Treaty. This unchecked regulatory accumulation is presented as a core reason for Europe’s declining competitiveness, driving up compliance costs, slowing decision-making, protecting incumbents and diverting resources from innovation to bureaucracy. The piece underlines how political incentives make meaningful deregulation politically near-impossible.

EPICENTER’s 2025 Nanny State Index, featured in MSN Norway, ranks European countries on tobacco, junk food, and alcohol regulations, each weighted at 33.3% for a score out of 100. It highlights varied approaches, with stricter laws sparking debate over personal freedom versus health benefits.

Christopher Snowdon’s new EPICENTER study shows that every €1 increase in cigarette prices drives a 5–12 percentage point rise in illicit consumption across Europe. While Romania has successfully halved its black-market share from 12% to 6% through moderate taxation, the article cautions that the government’s planned 10% excise rise risks reversing these gains. In high-tax countries like the UK, France and Ireland, legal sales have collapsed without meaningful drops in smoking prevalence, boosting organised crime and eroding revenues instead.

EPICENTER, featured in Prawo.Gazetaprawna, critiques the February 2025 excise tax hike on vaping devices (PLN 40/unit), nicotine pouches (PLN 150/kg, rising to PLN 250 by 2027), and e-cigarette liquids (PLN 40 penalty + PLN 0.96/ml), arguing it lacks a health campaign to justify the increase. Our research warns of a growing black market, citing KPMG’s report of a 4.3% shadow economy in 2024, and notes potential triple taxation risks, with industry experts estimating up to PLN 30 billion budget losses over a decade from proposed bans on disposables and flavored pouches.

EPICENTER, featured in a European Conservative article, critiques the EU’s plan to raise its budget to €2 trillion, including higher tobacco taxes and a new carbon tax, citing a study showing a €1 excise hike boosts the illegal cigarette market by 5-12%. The think tank opposes taxing alternatives like vaping, noting Sweden’s success with lower smoking rates.

The EU Regulatory Observatory’s latest assessment gives the European Commission’s SME Relief Package a lukewarm 6.57/10 for liberalisation. Despite promises of a 25% cut in reporting burdens via sandboxes and voluntary measures, Brussels Report highlights new bureaucratic layers and a failure to tackle the 729% regulatory explosion since Maastricht. The analysis warns that cosmetic tweaks and selective exemptions fall far short of the bold deregulation Europe needs to close the competitiveness gap with the US and China.