Christopher Snowdon’s new EPICENTER study shows that every €1 increase in cigarette prices drives a 5–12 percentage point rise in illicit consumption across Europe. While Romania has successfully halved its black-market share from 12% to 6% through moderate taxation, the article cautions that the government’s planned 10% excise rise risks reversing these gains. In high-tax countries like the UK, France and Ireland, legal sales have collapsed without meaningful drops in smoking prevalence, boosting organised crime and eroding revenues instead.